The Hidden Danger of Opportunity: When a Big Order Becomes a Big Problem
In a banking ad i recently saw featuring Fiona, she gets the call every business owner dreams of—an order for 50,000 units. The excitement kicks in, the adrenaline rushes, and suddenly, everything feels possible. The ad is designed to inspire, positioning the bank as the solution to help businesses scale and make their dreams come true.
But what the ad also highlights—perhaps unintentionally—is the very real risk of what happens next.
Because for business owners, this doesn’t feel reckless. It feels like opportunity. It feels like the moment they’ve been waiting for—the validation that they’re on the right path. And in that excitement, they often overextend, overcommit, and make decisions that can jeopardize everything they’ve built.
The problem isn’t that business owners are careless. It’s that they’re driven, ambitious, and wired to say yes to growth. But not all growth is good growth, and failing to recognize the difference can be the difference between long-term success and financial disaster.
Even more concerning? Business optimism rarely accounts for economic cycles. Many businesses grow aggressively during a boom, assuming the good times will last—only to be caught off guard when demand slows, interest rates rise, or consumer spending shifts.
And perhaps the biggest risk of all? Overproduction—when businesses invest heavily in stock that never gets sold.
1. More Revenue ≠ More Profit
The biggest misconception about growth is that more revenue automatically means more profit.
It doesn’t.
A large order brings with it massive costs, and unless those are planned for, the profit can disappear before the first shipment even leaves the warehouse.
🚨 Hidden costs that eat into profitability:
Increased production costs – More raw materials, supplier costs, and packaging.
Warehousing and logistics – Storing and shipping larger quantities means higher fees.
Staffing and labor – Hiring more people or paying overtime to meet demand.
Longer payment terms – Large customers often demand 60- to 90-day payment terms, meaning the business carries all the costs upfront.
📌 Example:
A business doing $1M in sales with a 50% margin ($500K profit) could be more profitable than a $10M business with a 5% margin ($500K profit)—but 10x the stress, risk, and operational complexity.
👉 What feels like a big win can quickly turn into a high-cost, high-risk balancing act.
2. The Risk of Overproduction: When Growth Turns into Excess Stock
One of the biggest dangers of scaling too fast is producing more than you can sell.
🚨 How businesses fall into the overproduction trap:
Overestimating demand – Assuming every customer will reorder at the same volume.
Tying up cash flow in excess stock – Large inventory means money is locked in unsold goods.
Underestimating shifting consumer preferences – What’s trending today may not be in demand tomorrow.
Overcommitting to suppliers – Long-term contracts for high-volume production that can’t be adjusted when demand drops.
💡 Why this is dangerous:
Once stock is produced, the money is spent—whether it sells or not. Excess inventory leads to:
❌ Discounting and margin erosion to move stock.
❌ High storage and warehousing costs.
❌ Product obsolescence or expiration (especially in seasonal or perishable categories).
❌ Wasted resources and environmental impact.
📌 Example:
A fashion brand doubles production to meet forecasted demand. Sales slow, and suddenly, they’re sitting on millions in unsold inventory—forcing deep discounts, clearance sales, and lost profitability.
👉 The smartest businesses produce enough to meet demand and grow sustainably, rather than guessing and hoping sales will follow or they have a viable clearance strategy if things don’t go plan.
3. Infrastructure Lock-In: The Danger of Scaling Before You Need To
A big order often makes business owners feel like they need to level up immediately—
✅ A bigger warehouse
✅ More staff
✅ New equipment
✅ More inventory
But here’s the dangerous cycle this creates:
A big order forces infrastructure upgrades.
The cost of running that infrastructure is high.
To cover the new expenses, the business needs another big sale ASAP.
Desperation kicks in, leading to poor decision-making:
Accepting low-margin deals just to cover overhead.
Offering excessive discounts to win volume.
Entering risky partnerships out of urgency.
📌 Example:
A business lands a 50,000-unit order and expands its warehouse. The next year, the order isn’t renewed. Now, with increased costs but no guaranteed revenue, the business scrambles to replace the lost sales—often making bad deals just to stay afloat.
👉 Smart businesses scale infrastructure step-by-step, ensuring demand is sustainable before locking in high expenses. Plan your infrastructure for where you want to be while recognising the constraints of where your business currently sits.
4. Business Optimism Doesn’t Factor in Economic Cycles
Optimism is an essential trait for entrepreneurs. It’s what drives them to take risks, push boundaries, and believe in their business.
But optimism can also be blinding.
📌 Common growth assumptions that ignore economic cycles:
“Sales are strong now, so they’ll continue growing.”
“Customers will always want more.”
“We’ll figure out how to make it work later.”
The reality?
Markets shift. Consumer demand fluctuates. Interest rates rise. Supply chains get disrupted.
💡 Sustainable businesses plan for downturns by:
✅ Keeping costs flexible—scaling infrastructure gradually instead of committing to long-term expenses.
✅ Maintaining strong cash reserves—to weather temporary drops in revenue.
✅ Building diversified revenue streams—so they aren’t overly reliant on one customer or channel.
📌 Lesson: The best businesses don’t just plan for growth—they plan for economic uncertainty.
👉 If a business model only works in good times, it’s not a sustainable business model.
5. Sustainable Growth: A Smarter Path to Scale
Instead of saying yes first, figure it out later, successful businesses scale intentionally and profitably.
✅ Start with a Strong Foundation
Ensure existing operations are efficient.
Refine supply chain, logistics, and production before scaling.
Train staff and create repeatable, scalable processes.
✅ Avoid Overproduction
Produce based on real demand, not guesses.
Implement flexible production models to scale up or down.
Reduce inventory risk by balancing stock levels with sales velocity.
✅ Factor in Economic Cycles
Plan for downturns—don’t assume constant growth.
Maintain cash flow flexibility instead of overcommitting.
Be conservative with financial projections.
Final Thoughts: Opportunity is Only Good if It’s Profitable
The bank ad with Fiona captures a real business dilemma—when a big order comes in, saying yes feels like the right move.
And sometimes it is.
But opportunity isn’t always opportunity—it’s often just disguised risk.
🔴 The biggest mistake?
Overcommitting without a plan.
Scaling before you are ready to.
Assuming growth will continue indefinitely, ignoring economic cycles.
Producing more stock than you can sell.
A $1M business with strong profit margins and solid infrastructure will always be in a better position than a $10M business struggling with cash flow, inefficiencies, and unsold inventory.
Start with a healthy business because if you 10x your sales you 10x your problems
🚀 Grow smart. Grow strong. Grow sustainably.
